Trends
and advancing development of cyber warfare capabilities will continue, with attacks
focused on espionage, strategic strikes to cripple specific targets [such as Stuxnet],
and integrated support for traditional sea, air, and ground offensives. Paired attacks between nations currently in
conflict [Pakistan and India; S. Korea and N. Korea; Israel and Iran] will continue
to escalate in number and severity.
There are a number of factors which will drive the expansion of cyber warfare. Here are four:
Cyber Weapons: Keep
Up or Prepare to be Vulnerable
Military
powers around the world cannot afford to be left behind in a world of rapidly advancing
cyber warfare capabilities. Actions by
China result in increased budgets and staffing in the United States; offensive
actions by Israel are met by increased actions from Iran; North Korean attacks
are met by return attacks from South Korea.
Few will be left out: according to U.S. intelligence officials on
January 9, 2013, thirteen of the world’s fifteen largest nations are gearing up
cyberwarfare programs and staffing.
Fear Drives
Expenditures, Putting the Cyber Arms Race in Full Swing
Public
fears of cyber strikes are enflamed by industry cyber war providers and professional associations, whose studies and press releases of dangers and ever-impending
attacks around the world fuel media reports, which are spread over the
Internet. The result: expansion of
government cyber warfare budgets for both defensive and offensive capabilities.
Cyber Espionage to
Take the Lead
Whereas
cyber attack capabilities to disrupt or disable operations are difficult to
develop and execute, opportunities for military and political espionage abound. China for one maintains extensive espionage
capabilities and is known to continually probe U.S. commercial, military and
government sites for weaknesses and gain access to classified technical
specifications and military plans. Such espionage capabilities will grow rapidly in
the coming three years, being the number one category of cyber warfare attacks.
Growing
Capabilities of Cyber Arms Merchants
Extremist
and terrorist groups with access to funding are finding expanding opportunities
to procure an increasing array of cyber attack methods, tools, staffing and
support, even rental server farms for attacks from a growing array of cyber
arms merchants. This will not only speed
the terrorist groups’ entry into the world of cyber attacks, but provide access
to a continuing stream of the latest technology for increasingly sophisticated campaigns.
For more
discussion, watch for our upcoming special report on the upcoming growth of
cyber warfare being released in mid-February.
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